A scenario is a bucket of stories that drives processes, stimulates creation of software, adds to brand value and spawns measures to help us adapt to future changes in the world as we see it today.  Think of a scenario as a number of vignettes about the future and we use them to help guide what we do and when.

Ideally we use two or three different future scenarios to prepare ourselves for different possible futures, to minimize our risk of failure or minimize our risk of NOT SUCCEEDING or exploit future scenario opportunities.

Accountants use scenarios daily.  Forecasts are the intersection point of Accountants, numbers and stories, but sadly they forget the stories behind the numbers and manipulate numbers without considering that story relationships are far different than adding or subtracting, more or less flexible or just plan inexplicable.  Scenarios are not sensitivity analysis (sales up and expenses down) or workflows (if I do this then should I do that) or tools to create web sites (if a buyer goes there they press this button) but rather a bucket of stories, pure and simple. 

For a FAST SCENARIO create a folder, digital or physical, and cut and place stories into the folder.  When finished read the stories to see which internal process, software, brands or measures are affected by the stories.  This perspective is reflected in a simple but powerful tool, the STORY LENS.

Once we understand the stories in the folder or bucket and their relationships to each other we get a clearer understanding of the current state of the business.  We finish the scenario by simply fast forwarding the stories and processes from our new understanding of current state.  We are here now and we expect to be ‘there’ or where the scenario takes us in the time that is of interest to us.

A FAST SCENARIO tells us where we might go and allows us to understand how to prepare.  The hidden value of a FAST SCENARIO is understanding where we are today or our current business state. 

Most companies are very good at understanding where they want to go and forecasting.  Where they fail is understanding their current state as no matter how good their forecasting is, they will not reach their goal as they almost always start from a different place.

Cheers,

Nick www.scenario2.com